According to data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), active mobile subscriptions in Nigeria declined significantly year-on-year (YoY) in Q1 2025.
Total subscriptions dropped by 46.60 million, or 21.3%, falling from 219.30 million in Q1 2024 to 172.71 million in Q1 2025.
However, on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the sector showed signs of recovery. Active subscriptions rose by 1.06%, increasing from 170.89 million in February 2025 to 172.71 million in March 2025, an addition of 1.82 million subscribers.
This modest growth indicates that telecom operators are gradually rebounding from the negative impact of the NIN-SIM linkage policy on mobile subscriber numbers.
MTN, the largest operator by subscriber base, recorded the highest monthly gain, adding 1.24 million new subscribers to reach 90.49 million in March 2025, up from 89.26 million in February.
Airtel, the second-largest operator by subscriber count, gained 391,385 subscribers, bringing its total active lines to 58.26 million from 57.86 million the previous month.
Globacom, the third-largest operator, saw a modest rise, gaining 188,154 subscribers, which brought its total to 20.72 million from 20.53 million in February 2025.
9mobile’s subscriber numbers remained unchanged at 2.96 million, the same figure as the previous month.
Nigeria’s teledensity, representing the number of active telephone connections per 100 inhabitants, rose to 79.67% in March 2025, up from 78.83% in February.
Similarly, broadband penetration increased slightly, reaching 47.73% compared to 46.58% the previous month.
We anticipate a strong rebound in mobile subscriptions in the coming months as previously deactivated lines are reconnected.
Nigeria’s large and growing population will be a key driver of this recovery, particularly with a significant portion of the population still lacking access to telecom services.
Our outlook for Nigeria’s telecommunications sector in 2025 remains highly optimistic. Key factors expected to fuel growth include the recovery in mobile subscriptions, ongoing tariff adjustments, expansion of 4G and 5G networks, rising broadband adoption, and the continued transition from analog to digital services.
Credit: CSL Research
