By CSL Research
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has released its June 2025 Oil Production Status Report, showing a 3.6% month-on-month (MoM) increase in Nigeria’s crude oil output (excluding condensates).
Production rose to an average of 1.51 million barrels per day (mbpd), up by 52,533 barrels from the 1.45 mbpd recorded in May 2025.
This increase pushed Nigeria’s crude output slightly above its OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd), marking only the second time in 2025 that the country has met or exceeded its target, following January’s 1.54 mbpd.
Including condensates, total oil production rose from 1.66 mbpd in May, of which 204,493 bpd were condensates, to 1.70 mbpd in June, with condensate production slightly lower at 191,572 bpd.
During the month, daily oil production fluctuated between a low of 1.61 million mbpd and a peak of 1.82 million mbpd.
Total oil production (crude and condensates) varied across Nigeria’s key terminals in June 2025, reflecting mixed performance compared to the previous month.
The Forcados terminal retained its top spot with the highest output, producing 8.85 million barrels, up from 8.08 million barrels in May.
The Bonny terminal followed, recording 7.17 million barrels, slightly above the 7.10 million barrels produced in May. Among other major contributors, Qua Iboe produced 5.09 million barrels, up from 4.97 million barrels. Escravos’ output declined to 4.17 million barrels compared to 4.57 million barrels in May.
Bonga also recorded lower production, with 3.53 million barrels, down from 3.68 million barrels the previous month.
The increase in oil production recorded in June 2025 offers some reassurance about Nigeria’s efforts to narrow its widening fiscal deficit, which has been exacerbated by volatile global crude oil prices.
So far this year, prices have averaged around US$70 per barrel, falling short of the budget benchmark of US$75 per barrel.
Recently, the Group Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), Bayo Ojulari, stated that Nigeria is ramping up production with a medium-term target of reaching 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2027.
In our view, this highlights the government’s inability to meet its 2025 budget target of 2.06 mbpd by the end of this year.
Instead, expectations are more cautiously set, with optimism for achieving a maximum output of about 1.9 mbpd by December, assuming downside risks such as crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and large-scale illegal bunkering can be contained.
Overall, we project that Nigeria’s average crude oil production in 2025 will be around 1.66 mbpd.
