The Nigerian telecommunications sector is in the early stages of recovery following a sharp decline in mobile subscriptions over the past year.
According to data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the total number of active subscriptions fell by 43.43 million, a 20.07% year-on-year (YoY) decrease from 216.38 million in April 2024 to 172.95 million in April 2025.
This significant drop was primarily driven by the enforcement of the NIN-SIM linkage policy, which resulted in the mass deactivation of unverified lines.
Despite the sharp annual decline, recent figures suggest a gradual turnaround. On a month-on-month basis, the sector posted a modest increase of 0.14% in active subscriptions, rising from 172.71 million in March 2025 to 172.95 million in April, an addition of 239,899 subscribers.
This subtle yet positive shift suggests that telecom operators are starting to recover from the disruptions caused by the NIN-SIM linkage directive.
MTN, the country’s largest operator by subscriber base, experienced a slight growth, adding 13,500 subscribers to reach a total of 90.51 million in April 2025 from 90.49 million in March 2025.
Airtel, the second-largest provider, recorded a more substantial increase of 331,090 new subscribers, raising its total base to 58.59 million from 58.26 million the previous month.
Conversely, Globacom reported a decline, losing 108,393 subscribers, falling to 20.61 million from 20.72 million in March 2025. Meanwhile, 9mobile maintained a stable subscriber count of 2.96 million, showing no change from the previous month.
We anticipate that the recovery in mobile subscriptions will gain momentum in the coming months, driven by the reactivation of previously deactivated lines.
Nigeria’s large and growing population will be a key driver of this recovery, particularly with a significant portion of the population still lacking access to telecom services.
Our 2025 outlook for the telecoms sector remains strong, supported by key drivers such as subscriber recovery, tariff adjustments, the rapid rollout of 4G/5G, expanding broadband access, and the shift from analogue to digital services.
These factors position the industry as a resilient and attractive investment opportunity with solid medium- to long-term returns.
Credit: CSL Research
